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Initial research: October 7 Central. Stat checks, projections, optimization and simulation work: October 8 Central. Market and ownership figures remain earlier snapshots. Salaries came from nine supplied screenshots covering 52 unique entries; Spy/Huddle payout settings came from four supplied screenshots.

Testing: 40,000 initial conditional games and 12,000 additional games for Spy/Huddle payout comparisons. Quarterback yards and TDs reconcile to receiving output; defenses credit sampled opponent turnovers. Legal opponent lineups and duplication were modeled under assumed ownership, with ties sharing the prizes at their occupied ranks.

Limits: This is partial correlation, not a drive simulation. Workloads and variability are editorial assumptions. Fields are hypothetical; ownership has not been empirically calibrated. We tested several field strengths, but assigned no script probabilities. Raw modeled returns are omitted because they are not credible profit forecasts. Core Builds maximize conditional projections within disclosed role restrictions, not actual tournament payouts. The simulation compared these seven candidates; it did not prove one the best of all possible lineups.

Earlier markets: Anytime-TD snapshot: Williams −235, Lamb −110, Pickens +120, Ferguson +225. These price at least one TD, not two or optimal Captain. [7] Secondary yardage thresholds: Dak 265.5 passing; Daniels 181.5 passing / 46.5 rushing; Lamb 80.5 receiving; Pickens 61.5 receiving; Williams 73.5 rushing / 15.5 receiving. They await direct sportsbook confirmation. An over/under is not automatically an expected output. [8]

Role restrictions: Known OUT/IR players, unsupported roles and selected smallest-role punts were excluded from optimization. Coach Taylor's chosen Core Build sacrificed about 0.4 conditional projected points versus a Turpin version. Removing Hurst cost less than one projected point in Rothstein and about a tenth in Williams; small differences do not establish certainty.

1. Official game-week injury report.
2. Tampa's Week 4 recap: Daniels's first start.
3. Official Tampa–Dallas preview and defensive team statistics.
4. Williams official career statistics.
5. Ferguson official game logs.
6. Saved market source: Fantasy Alarm and CBS Week 5 listing. Prices move; these links do not make our earlier snapshot live.
7. DraftKings Network player-prop listing.
8. Secondary prop roundup. Yardage thresholds await direct-book confirmation.
9. Dallas unofficial depth chart.
10. Tampa depth chart.
11. Hurst official game logs and Tampa three-receiver usage.

1. Dallas confirms Tyler Smith activation and return.
2. Tampa confirms Daniels remains the starter.
3. Public ownership comparison: CTS article and CTS tool. The pages disagree; neither is actual contest ownership.
4. October 8 FantasyLabs matchup and market preview.